"Jonathan faces considerable pressure from some within his government to have Yar’Adua declared medically unable to serve and formally removed from office. If he removes large numbers of Yar’Adua loyalists from senior posts within the government and military, he could provoke a confrontation. If he acts only as a caretaker president, he won’t be able to tackle urgent problems like the return of violence to the Delta and chronic double-digit inflation. If he announces that he will not run for president in 2011, he will render himself instantly irrelevant, as a new race for power gets underway. If he announces that he will run, he will upset the delicate balance between north and south that appears to demand four more years of a northern presidency. There is also the risk that all this confusion will postpone the elections, creating a longer-term power vacuum that invites a military intervention."